“Florida’s labor force, payroll jobs and real gross state product are expected to continue to grow at a higher rate than the national average,� says Snaith, director of the , which produces quarterly Florida & Metro Forecast reports. For his entire first-quarter report, see .

Snaith says more Floridians and out-of-state job seekers will be on the hunt for employment, as the prospect of finding a job has steadily improved. Florida’s labor force is expected to grow by 1.4 percent through 2022, and the state’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.2 percent this year thanks to consistently strong payroll job creation, he says.

Snaith also predicts the employment sectors that will have the strongest average job growth in the state are Construction (4.7 percent), Professional & Business Services (4 percent), Financial (2.2 percent), Leisure & Hospitality (2 percent), Education & Health Services (1.7 percent), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.5 percent).

Additionally, Florida’s economy, as measured by real gross state product, is forecasted to expand at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent. Average growth is expected to be 0.5 percentage points greater than the institute’s forecasted average for the national real gross domestic product growth over the same period.

Growth, however, is not without its pains, Snaith says.

“The affordable housing problem is increasing, particularly in the faster-growing areas of the state,� he says.

Housing starts are projected to accelerate, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the near term. The forecast predicts total housing starts to be 139,111 in 2019, 150,908 in 2020, 161,278 in 2021 and 166,914 in 2022. In addition, house-price appreciation is expected to decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand.

As for retail, the forecast shows sales will grow at an average pace of more than 4.6 percent through 2022 thanks to a strong national economy, Florida’s strong labor market, bigger paychecks and rising household wealth.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

The Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.

Retail sales are up 5.4 percent year over year, according to the forecast from the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ . After consumer confidence reached an 18-year high in October 2018, Snaith said he expects an increase in gifts under the tree.

“Black Friday kicked off what should be a very strong holiday shopping season as U.S. consumers are in a near perfect environment to support faster spending,� says Snaith, alluding to increased retail sales led by rising employment, disposable incomes and faster wage growth. “American workers are enjoying something they have not experienced much in this economic recovery: larger paychecks. More take-home pay will lead to higher consumer spending.�

With the national unemployment rate at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since July 1968, a further decline is expected to reach 3.3 percent in mid-2019. Job growth will be sufficient to keep up with labor force growth as the forecast shows continued strength in the labor market through 2021. Payroll job growth of 1.6 percent is expected in 2018 and 2019 before easing to 1.1 percent in 2020 and 0.7 percent in 2021. For a recovery in its 10th year, Snaith says, economists cannot expect stronger growth than this.

Snaith, a self-proclaimed economic elf on the shelf, predicts the U.S. economy, as measured by Real Gross Domestic Product, will accelerate to near 3 percent in 2019, and then rise to 3.2 percent in 2019, before easing to 2.9 percent in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021. The forecast credits the recent Tax Cut and Jobs Act for the continued growth.

“Our uninspiring recovery was in desperate need of a policy boost, and the tax-reform law provides just what the recovery needed,� Snaith says. “The tax cuts have been coupled with significant and ongoing regulatory rollbacks, and if an infrastructure spending bill is added to the mix, the strength and lifespan of the recovery will receive yet another boost.�

An economic boost, however, is often coupled with interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Fed raised interest rates in September, and Snaith foresees an additional increase coming soon. The forecast shows continued rate hikes through 2019 and 2020 until the anticipated target reaches 3.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

As the housing market continues its recovery process, the market is projected to slowly improve through 2021 in the face of rising mortgage rates. Housing starts will gradually accelerate over the next several years from 1.26 million in 2018 to 1.54 million in 2021, according to the forecast.

For the complete U.S. report from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, visit .

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

“When Gov. Scott rolled out his 7-7-7 campaign in 2010, promising to create 700,000 jobs over seven years with seven detailed steps, it was initially met with disbelief from political opponents and the media alike,â€� said Snaith, director of the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness, which produces the quarterly Florida & Metro Forecast. “But the recovery of Florida’s labor market during his administration has been remarkable – creating nearly 1.5 million payroll jobs for a 46 percent increase over normal expected growth – and it is poised to make even further gains.â€�

Floridians can expect that trend to continue through 2021 with payroll jobs rising and unemployment continuing a downward progression, according to the forecast. Real Gross State Product (RGSP), payroll jobs and the labor force are expected to continue to grow at a higher rate than the national average through 2021.

From 2018-2021, the forecast shows Florida’s economy, as measured by RGSP, expanding at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent. Average growth is expected to be 0.5 percentage points faster than the institute’s forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period.

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth over the next three years are construction (6.2 percent), professional and business services (4.9 percent), financial (2.7 percent), trade, transportation and utilities (1.6 percent), leisure and hospitality (1.5 percent), and education and health services (1.5 percent).

The housing market will remain relatively stagnant due to the closing gap on inventory and availability over the next few years, Snaith said, adding that price appreciation will decelerate as supply catches up with demand tempered by rising mortgage rates.

The forecast shows retail sales growing at an average pace of more than 4.7 percent through 2021, boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, bigger paychecks and rising household wealth.

“The Rip Van Winkle recovery is finally waking up from eight-plus years of sluggish economic growth that had been slowed by regulatory burden and policy uncertainty,� Snaith says. “Rising employment, stronger balance sheets, high levels of consumer confidence together with faster wage growth create the caffeinated jolt needed to accelerate consumption expenditures.�

The third quarter forecast produced by the expects stronger economic growth and higher inflation from the current administration’s policies will prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at a faster pace over the next three years. Federal funds rates are expected to hit 4.25 percent by the end of the third quarter of 2021.

Real gross domestic product growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.1 percent in 2018, and then rise to 4.2 percent in 2019, before easing to 3 percent in 2020 and 2.2 percent in 2021.

Snaith says payroll job growth over the next two years will be the strongest that can be expected for an economic recovery in its 10th year. Payroll job growth of 1.6 percent is expected in 2018 before rising to 2 percent in 2019. It is expected to ease to 1.7 percent in 2020 and to 0.8 percent in 2021.

The housing market continues to recover and should slowly improve through 2021 in the face of rising mortgage rates. Housing starts are expected to rise from 1.32 million in 2018 to 1.68 million in 2021.

The headline unemployment rate is expected to decline to 3.2 percent in early 2020, and job growth should keep up with labor force growth through the end of the forecast horizon, Snaith said.

“The economy is closing in on full employment and the faster wage growth that will indicate it has arrived,� Snaith says.

In addition to being a self-proclaimed burger aficionado, Sean Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate. Snaith is featured in the recent episode of the new Is This Really a Thing? – which is hosted by College of Business Dean Paul Jarley.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to deliver complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

“After a steady stream of unfulfilling nothing burgers, Washington, D.C., has finally prepared a ‘something’ burger: an economic Big Mac known as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act,� Snaith said, adding that the special sauce of regulatory reform will help feed what has been an anemic economic recovery.

The new law lowers individual tax rates, increases standard deductions and expands the Child Tax Credit while also lowering corporate tax rates, which had been the highest among industrialized nations.

“The collective impact of this tax law will be significant, as it will raise the take-home pay of workers and reduce the incentive of companies to move offshore to avoid the high corporate tax rates in the U.S.,� Snaith said, noting that it also provides an incentive to bring back the hundreds of billions of dollars U.S. firms have been holding overseas, which can be used to invest in their domestic operations.

The first quarter forecast produced by the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness expects average monthly payroll job growth, which has been decelerating the past several years, to get a boost from tax reform over the next several years.

To date, policy and political uncertainty, regulatory burden and tepid economic growth have hindered payroll job growth, which slowed to 1.6 percent in 2017, but Snaith said it is expected to pick up in 2018-2020 to average 1.9 percent before easing to 1.1 percent in 2021.

The foreign sector will continue to be a drag on U.S. growth. The recent weakening of the dollar will boost exports and depress imports, but faster Gross Domestic Product growth and higher interest rates will allow the dollar to rise. As a result, net exports will continue to fall through 2021. Uncertainty over trade deals and tariffs continue to cast a shadow over this sector.

After raising interest rates in December, the forecast calls for the Federal Reserve to enact the next 25 basis point hike in March. Stronger economic growth and higher inflation from the Trump administration policies will prompt a faster pace of hikes over the next three years, with the federal funds rate hitting 4.25 percent by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.

Real GDP growth hit 2.3 percent in 2017 but is expected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2018 and rise to 3.5 percent in 2019 before easing to 2.9 percent in 2020 and 2.4 percent in 2021, as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates and gradually shrinks its balance sheet.

As the housing market continues to recover, Snaith said he expects it to slowly improve through 2021 in the face of rising interest rates, and housing starts will rise from 1.35 million in 2018 to 1.72 million in 2021.

The headline unemployment rate, which is based on the number of people who say they do not have a job and are looking for work, is expected to decline to 3.4 percent in late 2020. Job growth will be sufficient to keep up with labor force growth through the end of the forecast horizon. “The economy is closing in on full employment,� Snaith says, “and the faster wage growth that comes with it.�

Headline Consumer Price Index inflation, which measures how much inflation is occurring in the economy, will accelerate in 2018, pushing the Fed to continue raising interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. Core CPI inflation will average 2.6 percent during 2018-2021.

For the full forecast, visit:

“Even Hurricane Irma, doing its best Grinch impersonation, was not strong enough to derail Florida’s economy,â€� said Snaith, director of the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness, which produces the quarterly Florida & Metro Forecast. “Less than three months after the Category 4 storm devastated a good portion of the state, Florida’s growth is returning to trend with job and personal-income growth accelerating faster than the national average and the housing market continues to heat up.â€�

The latest Florida & Metro Forecast shows Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, expanding faster over the next four years than the U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product. Average annual growth during 2017-2021 is expected to be 3.4 percent, which is 0.6 percent higher than the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’s forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over this period. Real Gross State Product will expand by 2.8 percent this year and 4.1 percent in 2018 and 2019 before easing to 3.1 percent in 2020 and 2.8 percent in 2021.

Payroll job growth in the state continues to outpace national job growth. The forecast shows year-over-year growth averaging 2.5 percent in 2017, 2.4 percent in 2018, 2.3 percent in 2019, 1.7 percent in 2020, and 1.5 percent in 2021. Average job growth over the 2017-2021 period will be 0.8 percent faster than the national economy.

Although Irma’s economic impacts are expected to be short-lived, Snaith said the sectors most impacted will be Florida staples—Leisure & Hospitality saw significant short-run job losses that will take several months to recoup, and Construction, with its already strong growth, will be significantly boosted by repair and rebuilding efforts. The forecast shows labor force growth in Florida averaging 2 percent from 2017-2021. The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2021 are Construction (6.4 percent), Professional & Business Services (4.8 percent), Financial (2.4 percent), Manufacturing (1.7 percent), Education & Health Services (1.7 percent), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.4 percent). Real personal income growth will average 4.1 percent during 2017-2021, starting with 2.5 percent growth in 2017, rising to 4 percent in 2018, 5.6 percent in 2019, 4.4 percent in 2020 and 4 percent in 2021. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 0.6 percent over that four-year span.

Snaith said housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to completely ease the shortage of single-family housing. The hurricane recovery efforts will further squeeze the market for construction labor.

Total housing starts are expected to be 114,543 in 2017, 146,141 in 2018, 163,689 in 2019, 173,499 in 2020 and 179,315 in 2021.

In addition, retail sales will grow at an average pace of more than 5.25 percent during 2018-2021—after some short-term, hurricane-related volatility—boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market and rising household wealth. \

For the full forecast, visit:

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.

“Reelection is the motivation that I maintain will eventually lead to the passage of tax reform,â€� said the director for the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ College of Business in his final quarterly U.S economic forecast of 2017.

The House has passed a version of the bill, which is in the Senate with an administration goal of signing it into law by Christmas. The House bill proposes reducing the number of tax brackets, lowering rates for households while increasing standard deductions and child tax credits, and lowering the corporate tax rate while eliminating some tax breaks.

Snaith said to expect the Federal Reserve to initiate another 25-basis point hike in December. The Fed previously raised rates in June. The forecast notes stronger economic growth and higher inflation from Trump administration policies will continue a faster pace of hikes over the next three years, with the federal funds rate hitting 3.5 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2021.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which slowed to 1.5 percent in 2016, is forecasted to hit 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent in 2018 before slipping to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 2.6 percent in 2020, as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates and shrinks its balance sheet.

Average monthly payroll growth has decelerated the past three years and was further slowed by the aftereffects of Hurricane Irma, according to the forecast. Uncertainty and regulatory burden have been hindering payroll job growth, which slowed to 1.8 percent in 2016. The forecast shows payroll job growth slowing to 1.5 percent in 2017 before stabilizing at 1.6 percent for 2018-2020.

“Tax reform will boost job growth,� Snaith said, “but this late in a recovery, the effects will be short-lived.�

The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 3.8 percent in early 2019, and job growth will be enough to keep up with labor force growth through the end of the forecast horizon. Underemployment stands at 7.9 percent as of October 2017, but it also is forecasted to decline through 2021. The spread between unemployment and underemployment rates is down to 3.8 percentage points, the lowest since December 2007 when the Great Recession began.

The forecast states the foreign sector will continue to be a drag on U.S. growth. The recent weakening of the dollar will boost exports and depress imports, but faster GDP growth and higher interest rates will send the dollar higher again. As a result, net exports will continue to fall through 2021, and uncertainty over trade deals are expected to continue to cast a shadow over this sector.

The housing market, which continues to recover, is expected to slowly improve through 2020, even with rising interest rates. Housing starts are forecasted to rise from 1.2 million in 2017 to 1.71 million in 2021.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

“The greatest risk to Florida’s economic growth is not Irma, but the political tempest raging in Washington, D.C., that could wash away the prospect for economic stimulus needed to jumpstart the U.S. economy,â€� Snaith says in the quarterly Florida & Metro Forecast from the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness, noting the hurricane’s economic impact will be short lived.

The sectors most impacted by the hurricane in the next two to three months include Leisure & Hospitality (significant short-run job losses will take several months to recoup) and Construction (strong growth will be boosted by repair and rebuilding efforts). Whether President Trump’s administration can enact its proposed tax plan, health care changes and infrastructure spending in the coming months will have a longer lasting impact on Florida’s economy than Irma, Snaith said.

The latest Florida & Metro Forecast shows Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, expanding at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent from 2017 to 2020. In addition, Real Gross State Product will expand by 3.1 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2018 before easing to 4.2 percent in 2019 and then 3.4 percent in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be 0.9 percentage points higher than the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’s forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period.

Payroll job growth in the state is robust and continues to outpace national job growth, as year-over-year growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent from 2017-2020.

“Strong payroll job creation continues to strengthen Florida’s labor market,� Snaith said, “and this strong job market will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment and attract out-of-state job seekers.� The forecast shows labor force growth in Florida averaging 2.2 percent from 2017-2020, and Florida’s unemployment rate is expected to level out around 4 percent during the next three years.

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Construction (6.5 percent), Professional & Business Services (5.2 percent), Financial (2.4 percent), Leisure & Hospitality (1.7 percent), Education & Health Services (1.7 percent), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.5 percent).

Snaith said housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to completely ease the shortage of single-family housing. The hurricane recovery efforts will further squeeze the market for construction labor. Total housing starts are expected to be 117,161 in 2017, 147,638 in 2018, 154,633 in 2019 and 165,312 in 2020. House-price appreciation will decelerate as supply catches up with demand.

In addition, retail sales will grow at an average pace of more than 6.3 percent during 2017-2020—after some short-term, hurricane-related volatility—boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market and rising household wealth.

Contact Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½’s News & Information team to speak with one of these sources.

DISASTER/CRISIS MANAGEMENT:

Contacts:

Naim Kapucu, professor and director of the School of Public Administration

Claire Knox, associate professor and director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program

Christopher Emrich, associate professor of environmental science and public administration

FLOODING:

Contact:

, assistant professor of coastal risks and engineering (available only by phone or email through Sept. 8)

TOURISM:

, associate professor and chair of the Department of Hospitality at Rosen College of Hospitality Management.

THEME PARKS:

Contact:

Duncan Dickson, associate professor at Rosen College of Hospitality Management

ECONOMIC IMPACT:

Contact:

, director for the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, who is an economic forecaster. Snaith has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½â€™s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific.

HEALTH:

Contact:

Dr. Marcia Katz, associate dean for clinical affairs and professor of medicine

“While the population and real gross domestic product will continue to climb over the next three decades, it’s reasonable to expect we will have three to five recessions over that time,â€� said Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ College of Business.

The Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ Institute for Economic Competitiveness publishes its 30-year projections along with its second quarter Florida Forecast each year to assist organizations making long-term decisions. The forecasts are designed to provide industries such as transportation, education, development, government and utilities with input into their long-range decision making.

Over the next three years, growth of the real gross domestic product is forecasted to expand an average of 3.1 percent a year. Real gross state product is expected to expand 3 percent in 2017, 3.7 percent in 2018, and then easing to 2.9 percent in 2019 and 2.6 percent in 2020.

“Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth,� said Snaith, noting that year-over-year growth should average 3.3 percent in 2017 and 2018, 2.3 percent in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020. Average job growth over the 2017-2020 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.

The state’s housing market will continue to improve slowly through 2020, even with rising interest rates. Housing starts are expected to be 135,598 in 2017, 151,409 in 2018, 157,349 in 2019 and 165,172 in 2020.

“Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the short run,� said Snaith. “Meanwhile, house-price appreciation should decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand.�

Labor-force growth in Florida is forecasted to average 2 percent from 2017-2020, thanks to consistently strong payroll job creation.

“Labor-force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging, but Florida’s job creation will overcome this counterweight,� said Snaith. He expects unemployment rate will fall to 3.9 percent in 2018, 3.7 percent in 2019 and tick up to 3.8 percent in 2020. It’s currently at about 5 percent.

For the full forecast, see 

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.