{"id":6599,"date":"2015-06-16T18:26:26","date_gmt":"2015-06-16T18:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/pegasus\/?p=6599&post_type=story"},"modified":"2024-08-27T13:05:31","modified_gmt":"2024-08-27T13:05:31","slug":"horizon-cuba","status":"publish","type":"story","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/pegasus\/horizon-cuba\/","title":{"rendered":"Horizon Cuba"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summer 2015 | By Mary Frances Emmons<\/em><\/p>\n

[lead]\u201cLet me tell you a story,\u201d says Cuban-American poet Cecilia Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s<\/a>, \u201cso you know where I\u2019m coming from.\u201d[\/lead]<\/p>\n

[photo id=”7010″ title=”Cuba experts in the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ community warn will be one of the many challenges faced by the U.S. as it tries to overcome 50 years of distrust and move toward a new normal” alt=”Cuba experts in the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ community warn will be one of the many challenges faced by the U.S. as it tries to overcome 50 years of distrust and move toward a new normal” position=”right” width=”420px”][\/photo]Born in the U.S. to Cuban parents, the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ associate professor of English first traveled to the island in the late 1970s, \u201cwhen Castro opened doors to the exile community.\u201d She remembers visiting family in Havana and in the much poorer interior, where her relatives made do with thatched roofs and dirt floors. \u201cWhen you think of campesinos [farmers], that\u2019s exactly what they were,\u201d she says. \u201cVery little backyard, a chicken or two \u2014 that\u2019s all they owned. Everything else belonged to the pueblo, the government.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fast-forward to 2011 and another trip to Havana. She noticed that a cousin her age had an Acer computer \u201cjust like mine, with a huge monitor, and I was, like, \u2018What?!\u2019 \u201d \u201cSo of course we had to go to the interior. But there, their lives had not changed. They were just as poor as they had been,\u201d with open pipes where faucets should have been and a toilet that worked \u201cwith a bucket,\u201d she says. \u201cThat\u2019s a contrast I didn\u2019t expect to see.\u201d<\/p>\n

This tale of two Cubas \u2014 of the divide between the bold and eager to modernize and the vulnerable and impoverished \u2014 is what Cuba experts in the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ community warn will be one of the many challenges faced by the U.S. as it tries to overcome 50 years of distrust and move toward a new normal.<\/p>\n

[callout background=”#f2ecd8″]<\/p>\n

[blockquote source=”” cite=”From President Barack Obama’s Statement on Cuba policy changes, Dec. 17, 2014″ color=””]\u201cIn the most significant changes in our policy in more than 50 years, we will end an outdated approach that, for decades, has failed to advance our interests, and instead we will begin to normalize relations between our two countries. Through these changes, we intend to create more opportunities for the American and Cuban people, and begin a new chapter among the nations of the Americas.\u201d[\/blockquote]
\n[\/callout]<\/p>\n

Not So Fast<\/span><\/h2>\n

On Dec. 17, 2014, pundits everywhere hailed a thawing in the five-decade freeze between the United States and Cuba, dissolving the last remnants of the Cold War. But many authorities are sounding a more cautious note: It may be a long while until there\u2019s a true flow of ideas, goods and travelers between these neighbors separated by 90 miles of open water and more than a century of misunderstanding.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not sure how much of a thaw we\u2019re really going to see,\u201d says international relations researcher Paul Vasquez, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science who is of Cuban ancestry. \u201cTotally open trade and tourism won\u2019t be possible in the immediate future because of laws passed on our side.<\/p>\n

\u201cA host of technical details could be stumbling blocks to whether we move ahead,\u201d Vasquez says, citing Republican opposition in Congress, the future of the U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay and support for Cuban dissidents \u2014 although the removal of Cuba in May from a U.S. list of states that sponsor terrorism eliminated one major hurdle to normalization. Vasquez predicts that internal politics in the U.S. may play a greater role in how the process unfolds than any discussions between the two nations.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s more of a thawing than a thaw,\u201d says Rosen College of Hospitality Management<\/a> Professor Robertico Croes, who studies international tourism demand on small economies. \u201cThere\u2019s always been a fascination with Cuba in the U.S. and the challenge it represented, especially with the large Cuban population in Florida,\u201d says the associate dean of administration and finance. \u201cFrom a tourism perspective, it\u2019s something new and different; it [has fired] the imagination of Americans \u2014 for 50 years \u2014 and they will want to visit, for sure.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the long term, a lot depends on how things on the ground play out,\u201d says Croes. \u201cWhat will be the real policies of the Cuban government? That\u2019s the wild card here.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ironically, according to Vasquez, the convictions that led the Obama administration to make this overture may hamper its progress. \u201cObama has tried to deal diplomatically without making a sustained, public media offensive in the U.S. as to why [restoring relations] might be a good thing,\u201d he says. \u201cWithout effort at home to remind the public what those reasons are, it makes it easier for critics to take potshots.\u201d<\/p>\n

More Harm Than Good?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Assuming that normalization proceeds, the effect of re-establishing relations is likely to be complicated for Cubans and may bring more harm than good, some Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ experts fear.<\/p>\n

The possible positive effects are easy to comprehend: The introduction of retailers like Wal-Mart and The Home Depot could mean \u201cCubans will finally have access to goods that they could not afford previously,\u201d says associate professor of economics Mark Soskin. \u201cIt will be a huge boon to their quality of life and standard of living.\u201d But according to Cuban history expert Luis Mart\u00ednez-Fern\u00e1ndez, the personal cost of that prosperity may be higher than the average Cuban is prepared to pay.<\/p>\n

\u201cHaving followed the way in which the thaw is coming along, I don\u2019t see positive change for the Cuban people,\u201d says the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ professor of history, who was born on the island and raised in the U.S. and Latin America. For foreign capital to succeed in Cuba, \u201cit will depend on continuation of an authoritarian regime that limits Cuban labor, limits labor unions, limits Cuban workers,\u201d Mart\u00ednez-Fern\u00e1ndez explains. He says U.S. businesses are motivated to enter Cuba not out of humanitarian or democratic interests but \u201cto create a miniature floating China 90 miles from the U.S. coast.\u201d<\/p>\n

Soskin agrees that much depends on whether Cuba decides to take \u201ca China path,\u201d which he describes as when countries enact a business plan that \u201cshortcuts what the U.S. does, leaving out some of the messy things like democracy\u201d and a free economy. \u201cMy biggest concern is we\u2019ll go back to 1898,\u201d says Mart\u00ednez-Fern\u00e1ndez. \u201cCuba was bankrupt, and the Cuban elite had been impoverished by 30 years of war. [The elite] lost control, and U.S. capital flowed in without the ability of Cubans to contest. It created an economy of enclaves.\u201d<\/p>\n

Returning U.S. investment could re-establish such enclaves \u2014 enormous resorts, major port facilities, \u201careas in which U.S. capital dominates, similar to how the sugar plantations used to be,\u201d Mart\u00ednez-Fern\u00e1ndez explains. \u201cWhat I see is a rather unholy alliance between extreme capitalism and authoritarianism on the island. It\u2019s a wonderful opportunity for Ra\u00fal [Castro] to prop up an insolvent regime without having to yield any power. Cuban dissidents have been vocal in warning that the U.S. should not give allowances to the Cuban government without demanding better human rights.\u201d<\/p>\n

[callout background=”#f2ecd8″][blockquote source=”” cite=”” color=””]\u201cThe issue of human rights in Cuba must be at the top of the agenda.\u201d[\/blockquote][\/callout]<\/p>\n

\u201cCuba needs the United States more than the United States needs Cuba,\u201d says Cuban-American Jos\u00e9 Fern\u00e1ndez, dean of the College of Arts and Humanities.<\/a> \u201cThe issue of human rights in Cuba must be at the top of the agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n

The price of normalization for the Cuban government could be higher expectations of exactly those sorts of rights, says political scientist Vasquez. \u201cI would expect the Cuban government will change its policies to help the average Cuban or face greater threat of revolution. Normalizing takes away the Cuban government\u2019s biggest excuse. They can\u2019t use Uncle Sam as the fall guy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Writer Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s also worries what the future may bring. \u201cWhat I would hope is that the island doesn\u2019t get divvied up again by corporations,\u201d she says. \u201cMultinationals have no allegiances. How do we help [the Cubans] without destroying all their resources?\u201d<\/p>\n

A Sweet Deal<\/span><\/h2>\n

The effects of a relations thaw on the U.S. are likely to be less obvious, because of differences in the size of the populations and economies, according to Soskin. And Americans could be in for some surprises.<\/p>\n

One positive change could be lower prices in U.S. restaurants and grocery stores, the economist explains. Soskin says the trade embargo has contributed to U.S. consumers paying among the world\u2019s highest sugar prices, and the warming relationship could help that situation. \u201cThere\u2019s an enormous movement back to sugar in the U.S. as a preferential ingredient of choice. An end to the embargo would mean a substantial decline in prices for all kinds of food products in supermarkets and eating places, as well as export opportunities for U.S. food manufacturers.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the downside: According to Croes, the U.S. is already seriously late to the party in Cuba.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now Cuba has a lot of tourists already, from other countries,\u201d he says. \u201cCuba already knows about tourism. Will [businesses] like Travelocity be allowed to operate there? Will companies like that be allowed to participate in the process? Will the market be allowed to function?\u201d<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the question of Cubans living in the United States. \u201cWhat will happen with their compensation, the expropriation of their property [from 50 years ago]?\u201d Croes asks. \u201cAll these are open questions right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

[photo id=”6990″ title=”Cuba and America: What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Cuba Relations?” alt=”Cuba and America: What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Cuba Relations?” position=”center”][\/photo]<\/p>\n

The Heart of the Matter<\/span><\/h2>\n

The rift between Cuba and the United States isn\u2019t just political \u2014 it\u2019s social, cultural and highly emotional. And according to some Cuban-Americans, each side has an image of the other that may be hard to give up.<\/p>\n

\u201cAmericans who are not of Cuban descent have a hard time understanding what it\u2019s like to have your family torn apart,\u201d says Cristina Calvet- Harrold, \u201901<\/strong>, a first-generation Cuban-American. \u201cThey only see the island as a new place to vacation, not what their dollars will support by visiting.\u201d<\/p>\n

For her mother, Olga Calvet, \u201971<\/strong>, an exile born in Cuba who now serves as chair of the Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ board of trustees, rapprochement with the Castro regime strikes close to the bone.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou have to understand that no matter what transpires, there are still a lot of feelings exposed after all these years,\u201d Calvet says. \u201c[Many people] lost everything they had worked for, lost family, had to start lives all over again as exiles. It hurts. Those feelings are very raw.\u201d<\/p>\n

[callout background=”#f2ecd8″][blockquote source=”” cite=”” color=””]\u201cI\u2019m not from there, but I am. That\u2019s my heritage, my husband\u2019s heritage, my children\u2019s heritage. I would love to be able to go back and forth, to have normal relations \u2014 not just country to country, but people to people.\u201d[\/blockquote][\/callout]<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t help that a generation after the revolution, Americans not of Cuban descent often don\u2019t have a cultural context for the situation, Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s explains.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s always been this beautiful, romantic image of Cuba that came from people who were capitalists and upper-class people [who] went there as their playground \u2014 this paradise in the Caribbean with casinos and resorts and shows,\u201d she says. \u201cWhen the revolution surged, it became a romantic leftist paradise. So many writers I admire talked about revolutionary Cuba as a great thing, and I was like, \u2018No, you don\u2019t really know what it\u2019s like.\u2019\u201dToday Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s is living the duality faced by the Cuban diaspora.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople sometimes say, \u2018When did you leave Cuba?\u2019 I guess I never left,\u201d the American-born writer explains. \u201cI\u2019m not from there, but I am. That\u2019s my heritage, my husband\u2019s heritage, my children\u2019s heritage. I would love to be able to go back and forth, to have normal relations \u2014 not just country to country, but people to people.\u201d And how to achieve that? \u201cWe need to listen to what Cubans want. Not the leaders, but the people on the street, in the interior, in the market,\u201d Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s says. \u201cI know they want freedom to express themselves, to not be afraid, to communicate with loved ones, to travel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Listening with a poet\u2019s ear, Rodr\u00edguez Milan\u00e9s seems to capture what Cubans and Cuban-Americans both hope and fear, expressed in the last stanza of her poem \u201cCuban American Manifesto\u201d:<\/p>\n

“Just because I let you in my house<\/span>
\n don\u2019t mean you can take my stuff<\/span>
\n because mi casa no es tu casa<\/span>
\n and mi coraz\u00f3n, my soul is<\/span>
\n not for sale.”<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Illustrations by Jonathan Burton<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":6723,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[341,324,287,297],"class_list":["post-6599","story","type-story","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-college-of-arts-and-humanities","tag-college-of-business","tag-college-of-sciences","tag-rosen-college-of-hospitality-management","issues-520","issues-summer-2015"],"yoast_head":"\nCuba and America: What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Cuba Relations?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Â鶹ӳ»­´«Ã½ economists, political scientists, tourism experts and alumni forecast what thawing relations could mean for both sides on this historic 90-mile divide.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/pegasus\/horizon-cuba\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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